tisdag, januari 16, 2007

Profit from breaking up monopolies

The European Commission has taken the side of consumers, to the surprise of many. Of course, if you want to generate growth and create jobs, you have to. Because what they are suggesting makes sense, and it has a surprising parallell to my own business - IT.
The EC does not just base its initiative on the battle against global warming, although that does play a part. Anyone who thinks it is sustainable to pump up resources from the ground and burn them must be daft, already Svante Arrhenius in 1896 had realized that (he went to the same high school as me, too). But the EC initiative will have another effect, as well: It will break up monopolies, and that is a surefire way to create growth. They want to break up the energy distribution and creation monopolies (which are local, not national monopolies).
Why does this relate to IT? Well, in 1981 there was a monopoly on data processing. You had to take your box of punched cards to the data center and get them processed. Computers were mainframes, and very expensive because they handled a lot of users (and that made them very expensive). There were minicomputers, but they were also expensive since they were downscaled mainframes. And then, IBM shot themselves in the head with the launch of the IBM PC. The rest is history.
OK, there are slight differences between a coalfired power plant and a S/360 mainframe, but you get the idea: Energy processing will be distributed and small scale. And the energy industry is now where the IT industry was in 1981.
This has all sorts of interesting ramifications: The electric cars from GM and Ford are like the PCs, they legitimate the movement. Even if you keep the grid and the strict rules for what you are allowed to connect to it, creating a parallell infrastructure at home, or in a small office building, will not be too difficult. And these are all things anyone with a bit of technical wit can do themselves, like the early PCs were.
The prediction is not very strange, I will admit, to those who remember the Whole Earth catalog, either. After all, it had two points: IT and alternative energy. The first happened before the last, but now it is time.
Two final points. Breaking up monopolies is all about creative destruction. This is going to be like the backhoes versus the earthmovers in the Innovators Dilemma. How can you produce, contain, and distribute energy in a way that is similar to moving earth? And last: The kooks are getting right. Last time, it was the geeks. That is a good sign, if any.

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