How long is it going to go on?

Before the financial markets crashed, there was already a recession. Those of us who read the signs knew it. The market crash was a surprise, of course. And the banks seem extremely reluctant to lend to each other (although they are lending to their customers, so the market has not clogged up, contrary to what you read in the newspapers). But the lending freeze meant that those who had borrowed to sell stock (and there were a lot of those) had to sell what they had - and go broke in the process. I guess the fiancial market is rather happy to clean out the short sellers, because they must have been a nuisance - if nothing else, just because they probably made the banks miss the Basel 2 requirement of assets to debt.
The current crisis should, in hindsight, not have come as a surprise. If the real-estate crash in the US had not started it, something else would. A bubble every nine to ten years, that is the rule - and here we have it. And of course the solar spots are at a record low, but the cycles seem to get little attention in the current reporting.
However, the market goes up, and it goes down. But the economy keeps growing. If they have to tighten their belts now (and oil prices were already pointing them there), Americans will come out all the healthier in the process. They borrow too much already. Not that the Asians would be any better, but we lend them our savings....
So how long until the banks lend again, and companies (and people) start to invest? End of 2009 is my guess. Then, we will see the start of the next boom, in alternative energy production. That is something few people understand (quick: What is a kilowatt hour, and how do you produce it?), but it is something which has huge potential to replace oil (which we will not get more of, and what there is will be used for plastics and chemicals, instead of burnt in furnaces and car engines - at low efficiency, at that).
I will invest in stocks (I am buying now), but I will stay away from companies I do not work with myself. There will be an alternative energy Enron, believe me. But I do not know what it is now. Let us come back in 2012, when alternative energy will be the big thing at the London olympics, and see who is the biggest sponsor.