tisdag, januari 23, 2007

The mechanics of money

I just booked a hotel in the US with my credit card. My Swedish credit card, from Japan. No doubt, you have done something similar some time.
Maybe you are old enough to remember, as I am, when credit cards hardly existed, and you had to carry real money to pay for things. It still is that way in Japan, and of course, as long as there is no meter on the credit card, this method has its advantages: You can see how much money you have. And disadvantages: Why do I have 50 koruna and 120 Yuan in my wallet?
But the convenience is not free. Not only do I have to pay the credit card fee, the credit card company also stifles me every time I buy and sell in foreign currencies. The rates are not exactly the best, because that is how any company dealing in foreign currencies makes their money: Skim the customers.
This business opportunity is disappearing, though. Before the Euro, when we had a bundle of different currencies, the only ones who could keep track were the banks. They are still fiercly resisting any attempts to introduce more transparency across Europe, but one day one of them (or one of their competitors) will discover the business opportunity (not more money, but more business transactions) and the borders will disappear.
This has already happened in the USA - indeed, has always been that way since they have always had one currency (except for during the civil war). Although in the US, they have introduced non-transparency by forcing banks to obey the state lines.
The trend will accelerate across the world. Criminals already start trading in Euros, and they are a bellweather. It will continue until we have three or four major currencies, and maybe a bunch of smaller ones who were not strong enough to join.
The Chinese Yuan passeed the Hong Kong dollar recently, for the first time. This means that the strengthening of the yuan continues. My bet is that, despite the problems in the Chinese economy that will become evident when banks open their books, the Yuan will become the reserve currency of a large part of the world, joining the dollar and the euro. The three biggest currencies will dominate, simply because they are the biggest. And they are biggest since they are attached to the three biggest economies in the world.
No, there will not be an Asian block, an American, or European. Money flows to the most attractive holes, and national loyalties matter less and less. Even if it is the country underlying the currency which guarantees its value, how do one million Vietnamese workers measure up against one million Singapore currency traders as value producers? Poorly.
I will probably not carry three credit cards. But maybe I will open a Yuan account.

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