End of the anti-recession

It struck me that I had not blogged for a while. Since July, in fact. I have been sucked up in the anti-recession, but it is over now, and we will have a very low spring with slow business everywhere.
Let me explain: In Swedish, we do not have a word for recession. We have a word for business cycle, and we talk about the high and low of it. We passed the peak just before the market crashed, and now we are on the downslope.
How do I know? Well, I have a personal marker: Any year I have gone around the world more than once in two months is the peak of the anti-recession, and the world economy will slow shortly after.
It worked the last time, when I went around the world twice in two months. That time, it was in different directions; this time, I was smart enough to go west, which is much better.
Anti-recessions make the wheels spin so fast that they get warm, and things break along the way. I myself get stressed, and make stupid mistakes (my wife knows what I mean, as does my secretary). I start losing things, which I do not usually do. I just hope I do not go the way of my father, and get a heart attack next time things speed up. I will be about the same age he was.
I may be guessing, but the telecoms industry seems to run on Juglar cycles. It is now unlikely that we will get 3G in China before next year (unless Huawei calls home all engineers and every electronics factory starts making base stations), so there will either be a slow letdown (after the Olympics), or there will be a rapid takeup (if they decide to have it before the expo in Shanghai). The cycle is 7 to 11 years long, which fits perfectly. It is seven years since the IT crash, and the trigger can still be Chinese securitization (I have been half right - securitization has proved almost as bad as the tech boom, except for the sock puppies). But my current prediction is the crash of Google (which is stupidly overvalued - make no mistake, it is a very valuable company, I admire them a lot, but they are not worth much more than 300 dollars per share, IMHO). That will coincide with the crash in China after 2008, but it will be a mild recession since they still have so much building to do and will have another target in the 2010 Expo in Shanghai. The rest of the world will not get out of the recession until 2012.
I am guessing, of course. It is impossible to know the next cycle - it is magic as much as picking stocks based on "technical analysis".
Hope to have time to blog some more - I now have a new book on the way (not the one I talked about before) so I may be plugging it...