In the last post, I asked where the money was coming from: The future. What happens when the people in the future have to pay? To find out, look at two places: Sweden and Japan.
Sweden used to have one of the biggest shipbuilding industries in the world. Almost nothing but some company names remain today, but the reason to bring it up is that there was a massive bailout in the 80's and 90's. More massive, I think, than that of the auto industry today. And on top of that, Sweden had a bank crisis which is similar to that of America today, although the scale was smaller and it was isolated to Sweden.
All of it was bailed out, but the industries were bought, dismantled, and sold. The bank bailout, in particular, was supposedly almost successful. Yet the country has the second highest tax burden in the world, and will remain so for the foreseeable future, because the systems that were created during the shipyard and bank bailouts. If you make industries rely on support from an infinitely deep pillow, they will. And they will not stop when they could have been healthy, unless there is somebody who has something to gain from getting them on their feet. Like, power.
But worse, and what we see in Sweden, people become reliant on the government. In the interest of smoothing transitions and helping create a humane society, people have been pampered. The number of people on long-time sick leave is higher than anywhere else, since it is used as a convenient dumping ground until they can be given early retirement. And even though I apprieciate that your back may be hurting so much it is hard to work, believing that getting a paycheck from the government every month is part of the human rights does not help. It is (or was) my money, that I earned, that the governement spends. I paid it in tax. The new government in Sweden is trying to change it, but it will take time.
Japan, on the other hand, has not become reliant on government (except from the "amakudari", public servant who retire to set up half-sham companies to get fat contracts, or monopolies from their old buddies). But while they avoided that trap, they fell into another: The public debt is higher than anywhere else, because of all the spending trying to support the economy after the "bubble years". This does not harm the economy so much as you might think, because most of the debt is held by the public, as savings bonds. Which means they are placing the future in hock. The problem comes when the economy starts shrinking, as it does now, and all of a sudden nobody is there to buy the new bonds, which would re-finance the debt (because paying it off is far from the governments mind). Young people in Japan can neither afford it nor want to do it, and the old people are dying off. Which means that even if the debt is kept at the same level, it will become a larger proportion of a shrinking economy. Eventually, some of the debt will default, since it can not be refinanced. When that happens, the Japanese economy will fall like a house of cards.
If there is a a new economic order happening, these are a couple of things to consider. But I do not think that is what Obama is brining. I think it is more of the same old stuff, although nicely repackaged and rebranded. It will be for later generations to sort out the mess. Just as they will have to sort out global warming.
I have no children. But as I write this stuff, I start wondering that if I did, would I not be incredibly ashamed of myself for making such a mess of the world I leave to them? Or would I just continue to empty their piggy bank while eating their future dinners? Seems to me that most of the world has made the latter choice. Wonder if it is worth fixing.
The Innovation Metric Bill Hewlett and Dave Packard Used
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Every public company in the technology industry measures innovation
spending the same way. R&D as a percentage of revenue.
Why? Because Wall Street track...
6 månader sedan

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